In the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union (EU), there are many people trying to understand what it means for the future. The demand for reliable crystal balls is high, while supply remains stubbornly low. Consequently the market price of reliable crystal balls has soared.
In general, only time will give the answers. Yet time itself is also uncertain. No-one can say when the following things will happen, or how long they will take:
Nothing happens in isolation. The UK/EU process and negotiations will have myriad effects, many of which we have not yet identified. The negotiations and the negotiators will be affected by any number of issues which may or may not be currently observable. Here is a non-exhaustive list in no particular order:
One thing we do know is that change brings uncertainty but also opportunity. A UK on its own may need help building new national IT infrastructures. The UK tax system might be simplified, for the benefit of corporate and personal taxpayers and the Treasury. Uncertainty might encourage a more diversified UK economy.
But one of the biggest enablers of economic growth is political, fiscal and economic stability, especially for Small and Medium sized Entities (SMEs), tech start-ups, and businesses looking to exploit a proven idea. And stability for both the remaining EU Member States and the UK is subject to a similar supply and demand equation as reliable crystal balls – highly prized but rare.
In ten years' time much of this will be known and we will be getting on with it. In the meantime I am pretty sure that my crystal ball is at least as good as anyone else’s…
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