Predictable uncertainty, steady optimism: mid-market resets for 2026
Global optimism among mid-market business leaders has slightly softened this quarter with 74% optimistic about their prospects over the next 12 months (down two points).
In contrast, concerns over economic uncertainty saw a dramatic eight-point decline, with 54% of business leaders feeling uncertain about their economy according to Grant Thornton’s latest International Business Report (IBR).
Businesses crave certainty. More stable and predictable conditions provide businesses the confidence to invest – or at the very least, reason to be confident about their future prospects. Why then has such a dramatic fall in concerns over economic uncertainty not led to a rise in optimism?
Economic optimism and uncertainty: 2020 - 2025
One interpretation of this apparent contradiction might be that the mid-market has adapted to, and normalised, the level of uncertainty they live and operate with on a daily basis. As the IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, said earlier this year: “Buckle up. Uncertainty is the new normal and it’s here to stay.”
Following a year that began with widespread predictions of recession in many markets around the world and has been defined with a constant stream of tariff announcements, and other potential disruption threats, it appears a more stable outlook is being met with a sense of relief, rather than buoyant optimism. Although we should note that levels of optimism at 74% still remain high against historic averages.
Will that optimism combined with a relief at falling (or normalised) uncertainty, lead to healthier commercial outcomes for the mid-market in 2026?
Judging by an across the board fall in concerns over business constraints you would expect businesses were preparing for better prospects next year. As well as the eight point fall in concerns over economic uncertainty, there was a seven-point fall in concerns over a shortage of finance – now only 41% cite it as a concern. A six-point drop in concerns about geopolitical disruption (down to 46%); six-point drop in concerns about competition (down to 48%); five-point drop in concerns about a shortage of future orders or demand (down to 47%); and a four-point drop in concerns about supply chains (down to 45% citing it as a concern). Concerns about all 15 of the constraints we track are down this quarter. Last quarter, 10 of these constraints had more than 50% of the mid-market voicing concerns about them. That figure halved to five this quarter.
So does this point to a buoyant 2026? Maybe. Maybe not. Our research shows another contradiction to the falling constraints. With inflation mostly coming under control, the data shows a four-point drop in those expecting to increase selling prices next year (down to 49%). Overall, those expecting to increase revenue next year has also fallen two points to 62%. And profit expectations also fell two points with 64% expecting an increase next year.
With over 60% expecting to see an increase in revenue and profit next year its clearly not all doom and gloom. But with less than half expecting to increase selling prices, it seems cost of living pressures on consumers are forcing businesses to compete on price and focus on delivering value for money – putting pressure on margins.
The reality is the global economy remains subdued. As the title of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook in October put it: “Global economy in flux, prospects remain dim”.
The global outlook is also making business leaders less confident about their international prospects with a five-point drop expecting to see an increase in exports (down to 51%) and a three-point drop in those expecting to see an increase in revenue from non-domestic markets (down to 47%).
This has led to some businesses to pull back on their investment intentions, with a five-point drop in those planning to invest in plant and machinery (down to 47%). However, concerns over a possible AI bubble have not seen a dramatic change in those planning to invest in this area (down just one point to 66%), nor in the broader IT category – also down just one point to 67%.
This suggest that businesses continue to see the importance of embracing technology and look for productivity gains that might give them the edge over their competitors.
Peter Bodin, CEO of Grant Thornton International Ltd, commented:
“As 2025 closes, our latest IBR shows optimism holding firm at 74%, even as expectations for revenue and exports soften. This is not a story of retreat – it’s a story of recalibration. Businesses are finishing the year stronger than they started, with supply-side pressures easing dramatically and economic uncertainty falling to its lowest level in two years.
At the same time, leaders are pragmatic. They are pulling back on big-ticket investments like plant and machinery, while doubling down on technology, AI, and R&D to future-proof operations. This pivot reflects a clear priority: resilience and productivity over rapid expansion.
Looking ahead to 2026, the mid-market is adapting to a world of predictable uncertainty. Firms are building stability, not waiting for it – investing in what matters most: their people, their purpose, and their ability to respond to change. That is how the mid-market will remain the engine of global growth.”
ENDS