Global optimism among mid-market business leaders has returned to its all-time high, with 76% optimistic about the outlook for their economy over the next 12 months. This marks the first increase in optimism this year and now matches the level seen in Q4 last year, before the announcement of US tariffs.
Rather than signaling a surge in confidence, this rebound appears to be driven more by relief than resurgence. At the start of the year, many feared the worst, particularly around the impact of tariffs, but the reality has proven less severe than anticipated and has been boosted by a surge in trade deals around the world.
Optimism is being driven primarily by North America, where 84% of business leaders are optimistic about the economic outlook (up three points). In contrast, optimism in Africa fell sharply to 60% (down nine points), potentially reflecting reduced aid flows and investment uncertainty. Asia-Pacific saw a strong rebound, climbing to 76% (up eight points), while Europe remains more cautious at 64% (up two points). South America held steady at 66%, suggesting a more static outlook across the region.
This quarter also brings a more positive outlook on profitability, with 66% of business leaders anticipating increased profits over the next 12 months (up three points). While North America leads profitability expectations at 76% (up six points), other regions show a more mixed picture. Both South America at 72% and Africa at 67% saw a six-point drop in profit expectations, while Europe was down four points at 61% and Asia-Pacific was flat at 57%. The overall rise may reflect tariffs and cost pressures being less severe than expected, though margin challenges persist outside the US.
Export expectations have surged, with a record 56% of business leaders expecting to increase exports (up six points). This surge may also reflect the unusually high volume of trade deals signed or negotiated in recent months. In response to sweeping US tariffs announced earlier this year, at least nine bilateral agreements have been reached or are pending finalisation, including deals involving the United States with Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, China (a 90-day tariff truce), the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Pakistan.
Beyond the US, countries around the world have accelerated regional and bilateral trade agreements, with blocs such as ASEAN, the EU, CPTPP, and Mercosur advancing new partnerships focused on sustainability, digital trade, and market diversification. These agreements, many of which include tariff relief, green technology transfers, and SME-friendly provisions, are helping mid-market firms recalibrate their global strategies. The result is a more confident outlook on exports, driven not only by relief from feared tariff impacts but also by a broader sense of strategic opportunity in a rapidly evolving trade landscape.
Peter Bodin, CEO of Grant Thornton International Ltd, commented:
“Our latest IBR research highlights that the biggest shake-up in global trade in years has created both disruption and opportunity, and mid-market businesses are responding to global uncertainty with clarity and purpose. This is more a story of recalibration than resurgence. Businesses are adjusting to a world of shifting tariffs, new trade agreements, and evolving customer expectations. They are expanding into new markets, investing in their brands and sustainability, and embracing technology to future-proof their operations.
The record levels of export expectations and optimism reflect the mid-market's characteristics of being agile, ambitious, and increasingly global in outlook. At the same time, rising concerns around economic uncertainty, competition, and cybersecurity show that mid-market leaders are clear about the risks they face. They are not waiting for stability, they are building it, by investing in what matters most: their people, their purpose, and their ability to adapt.”
The IBR results show expectations for revenue from non-domestic markets also increased, rising two points to 50%, suggesting that businesses are not only looking outward but also expecting tangible returns from their international efforts.
However, while export expectations surged, the proportion of businesses planning to expand the number of countries they sell to remains unchanged at 48%. Similarly, the share of firms expecting to increase the number of employees focused on non-domestic markets fell by two points to 38%, indicating that while international ambitions are high, operational expansion may be more cautious or delayed.
Marginally fewer business leaders plan to increase selling prices, down one point to 53%, which may reflect pricing pressures in competitive or inflation-sensitive markets. As a result, fewer business leaders expect to see an increase in revenue (down two points to 64%), suggesting that while businesses are optimistic, they are also realistic about the challenges ahead.
In contrast, employment expectations rose significantly, with 57% of business leaders expecting to increase headcount, a four-point rise from Q2. And those planning to offer salary increases remained unchanged at near record levels of 89%.
While inflation rates are stabilising or falling in many economies, concerns over several constraints reached record highs this quarter, highlighting the complex environment mid-market businesses continue to navigate. Economic uncertainty remains the most cited constraint, rising one point to 62%.
This was followed by concerns over labour costs, with 55% of business leaders identifying it as a concern (up three points), and energy costs, also up three points to 55%. These increases reflect persistent wage pressures and volatile energy markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, where geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions continue to affect input costs and business planning.
The number of business leaders concerned over cybersecurity rose sharply to a record high of 55% (up five points), reflecting growing awareness following a series of high-profile breaches affecting large corporations and their suppliers. For mid-market businesses, vulnerabilities often lie within their extended customer and supplier networks, making digital resilience an increasingly urgent priority.
Concerns around the availability of skilled workers rose marginally to 54% (up one point), while concerns over competition also reached a record high, with 54% citing it as a constraint (up three points). This was followed by concerns over regulation and red tape, which increased by three points to 52%, and concerns over future shortage of orders, which rose by two points to a record 52%. In contrast, concern over geopolitical disruption decreased slightly to 52% (down one point from Q2).
The consequences of the changing tariff landscape is a likely catalyst to this rise in competitive pressure and reflects increased market fragmentation and the race to capture new international opportunities.
These pressures are contributing to growing unease around supply chains, with a record 49% of business leaders citing supply chain complexity as a constraint (unchanged from last quarter), reflecting the ongoing reconfiguration of global value chains in response to tariffs, regionalisation, and nearshoring trends.
Investment intentions remain strong as mid-market firms look to future-proof operations amid global uncertainty. Information technology continues to be the top investment priority, with 68% planning to increase spending over the next 12 months, consistent with last quarter. Within this category, artificial intelligence remains the most prominent area of focus, with 67% planning to invest.
Investment intentions in brand increased sharply to 62% (up four points), while investment intentions in sustainability initiatives increased by four points to 60%, reaching a new record high. This rise reflects a strategic response to global uncertainty. As businesses expand into new geographies, brand recognition becomes critical. Meanwhile, the increase in sustainability investment defies global trends of ESG retreat, suggesting that mid-market firms view these initiatives as core to long-term value creation rather than compliance.
Investment intentions in research and development remains stable at 60%, while investment in people also held steady at 59% indicating continued focus on workforce development and retention.
Investment in workspaces increased to 53% (up two points) suggesting that businesses are increasingly focused on enhancing operational efficiency and employee experience. Meanwhile, those business leaders planning investments in plant and machinery remains unchanged at 52%.
ENDS
Press Release
Mid-market optimism rebounds — driven more by relief than recovery
15 Sep 2025
Global optimism among mid-market business leaders has returned to its all-time high, with 76% optimistic about the outlook for their economy over the next 12 months. This marks the first increase in optimism this year and now matches the level seen in Q4 last year, before the announcement of US tariffs.
Rather than signaling a surge in confidence, this rebound appears to be driven more by relief than resurgence. At the start of the year, many feared the worst, particularly around the impact of tariffs, but the reality has proven less severe than anticipated and has been boosted by a surge in trade deals around the world.
Optimism is being driven primarily by North America, where 84% of business leaders are optimistic about the economic outlook (up three points). In contrast, optimism in Africa fell sharply to 60% (down nine points), potentially reflecting reduced aid flows and investment uncertainty. Asia-Pacific saw a strong rebound, climbing to 76% (up eight points), while Europe remains more cautious at 64% (up two points). South America held steady at 66%, suggesting a more static outlook across the region.
This quarter also brings a more positive outlook on profitability, with 66% of business leaders anticipating increased profits over the next 12 months (up three points). While North America leads profitability expectations at 76% (up six points), other regions show a more mixed picture. Both South America at 72% and Africa at 67% saw a six-point drop in profit expectations, while Europe was down four points at 61% and Asia-Pacific was flat at 57%. The overall rise may reflect tariffs and cost pressures being less severe than expected, though margin challenges persist outside the US.
Export expectations have surged, with a record 56% of business leaders expecting to increase exports (up six points). This surge may also reflect the unusually high volume of trade deals signed or negotiated in recent months. In response to sweeping US tariffs announced earlier this year, at least nine bilateral agreements have been reached or are pending finalisation, including deals involving the United States with Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, China (a 90-day tariff truce), the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Pakistan.
Beyond the US, countries around the world have accelerated regional and bilateral trade agreements, with blocs such as ASEAN, the EU, CPTPP, and Mercosur advancing new partnerships focused on sustainability, digital trade, and market diversification. These agreements, many of which include tariff relief, green technology transfers, and SME-friendly provisions, are helping mid-market firms recalibrate their global strategies. The result is a more confident outlook on exports, driven not only by relief from feared tariff impacts but also by a broader sense of strategic opportunity in a rapidly evolving trade landscape.
Peter Bodin, CEO of Grant Thornton International Ltd, commented:
“Our latest IBR research highlights that the biggest shake-up in global trade in years has created both disruption and opportunity, and mid-market businesses are responding to global uncertainty with clarity and purpose. This is more a story of recalibration than resurgence. Businesses are adjusting to a world of shifting tariffs, new trade agreements, and evolving customer expectations. They are expanding into new markets, investing in their brands and sustainability, and embracing technology to future-proof their operations.
The record levels of export expectations and optimism reflect the mid-market's characteristics of being agile, ambitious, and increasingly global in outlook. At the same time, rising concerns around economic uncertainty, competition, and cybersecurity show that mid-market leaders are clear about the risks they face. They are not waiting for stability, they are building it, by investing in what matters most: their people, their purpose, and their ability to adapt.”
The IBR results show expectations for revenue from non-domestic markets also increased, rising two points to 50%, suggesting that businesses are not only looking outward but also expecting tangible returns from their international efforts.
However, while export expectations surged, the proportion of businesses planning to expand the number of countries they sell to remains unchanged at 48%. Similarly, the share of firms expecting to increase the number of employees focused on non-domestic markets fell by two points to 38%, indicating that while international ambitions are high, operational expansion may be more cautious or delayed.
Marginally fewer business leaders plan to increase selling prices, down one point to 53%, which may reflect pricing pressures in competitive or inflation-sensitive markets. As a result, fewer business leaders expect to see an increase in revenue (down two points to 64%), suggesting that while businesses are optimistic, they are also realistic about the challenges ahead.
In contrast, employment expectations rose significantly, with 57% of business leaders expecting to increase headcount, a four-point rise from Q2. And those planning to offer salary increases remained unchanged at near record levels of 89%.
Business constraints
While inflation rates are stabilising or falling in many economies, concerns over several constraints reached record highs this quarter, highlighting the complex environment mid-market businesses continue to navigate. Economic uncertainty remains the most cited constraint, rising one point to 62%.
This was followed by concerns over labour costs, with 55% of business leaders identifying it as a concern (up three points), and energy costs, also up three points to 55%. These increases reflect persistent wage pressures and volatile energy markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, where geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions continue to affect input costs and business planning.
The number of business leaders concerned over cybersecurity rose sharply to a record high of 55% (up five points), reflecting growing awareness following a series of high-profile breaches affecting large corporations and their suppliers. For mid-market businesses, vulnerabilities often lie within their extended customer and supplier networks, making digital resilience an increasingly urgent priority.
Concerns around the availability of skilled workers rose marginally to 54% (up one point), while concerns over competition also reached a record high, with 54% citing it as a constraint (up three points). This was followed by concerns over regulation and red tape, which increased by three points to 52%, and concerns over future shortage of orders, which rose by two points to a record 52%. In contrast, concern over geopolitical disruption decreased slightly to 52% (down one point from Q2).
The consequences of the changing tariff landscape is a likely catalyst to this rise in competitive pressure and reflects increased market fragmentation and the race to capture new international opportunities.
These pressures are contributing to growing unease around supply chains, with a record 49% of business leaders citing supply chain complexity as a constraint (unchanged from last quarter), reflecting the ongoing reconfiguration of global value chains in response to tariffs, regionalisation, and nearshoring trends.
Investment intentions
Investment intentions remain strong as mid-market firms look to future-proof operations amid global uncertainty. Information technology continues to be the top investment priority, with 68% planning to increase spending over the next 12 months, consistent with last quarter. Within this category, artificial intelligence remains the most prominent area of focus, with 67% planning to invest.
Investment intentions in brand increased sharply to 62% (up four points), while investment intentions in sustainability initiatives increased by four points to 60%, reaching a new record high. This rise reflects a strategic response to global uncertainty. As businesses expand into new geographies, brand recognition becomes critical. Meanwhile, the increase in sustainability investment defies global trends of ESG retreat, suggesting that mid-market firms view these initiatives as core to long-term value creation rather than compliance.
Investment intentions in research and development remains stable at 60%, while investment in people also held steady at 59% indicating continued focus on workforce development and retention.
Investment in workspaces increased to 53% (up two points) suggesting that businesses are increasingly focused on enhancing operational efficiency and employee experience. Meanwhile, those business leaders planning investments in plant and machinery remains unchanged at 52%.
ENDS