Business optimism softens as economic cycle comes off peak
16 Jul 2018
Business optimism softens as economic cycle comes off peak
Despite rising revenues, businesses not investing in structural growth
Global optimism softens to net 54% following Q1 record high
Divergence between largest global economies, with US business leader optimism dropping 11pp while China increased by 14pp
Also big quarterly drops in EU optimism (-14pp) with falls of 37pp in France, 14pp in the UK and 6pp in Germany
Globally businesses expecting increases in revenue rises to net 59%
Business investment not keeping pace with revenues, with investment in research and development at 22% and investment in technology 48%.
LONDON – Businesses leaders globally are less optimistic about the economic outlook, despite continuing rises in expected revenues, indicating that the global economic cycle may have peaked - reveals the latest research from Grant Thornton’s international business report (IBR).
Despite the backdrop of looming US interest rate rises, ongoing trade disputes and the end of quantitative easing in the EU, businesses are not taking steps to structurally invest to counter the risks the next stage of the economic cycle present.
The IBR finds global business optimism in Q2 2018 was a net 54%, a drop from the record high net 61% figure reported in Q1 2018. Some of the largest drops in optimism were seen in the EU, where optimism for the region fell from net 60% to net 46%. Optimism was down in the region’s three biggest economies. French business optimism was down 37pp to net 38% and in the UK it dropped from net 31% to net 17%. In Germany it dropped 6pp to net 74%.
Francesca Lagerberg, Global Leader Network Development at Grant Thornton, commented: “The mood among Europe’s economic heavyweight economies typifies the wider region. We know from our own research that eurozone businesses rank the rise in nationalist political parties as the biggest threat to economic stability – above Brexit concerns. These figures suggest recent political developments in countries such as Italy have taken a toll on the outlook for firms.”
Among the world’s two biggest economies, there was a divergence between the US, where optimism dropped 11pp to net 78%, and China, where it increased 14pp to net 79%.
However, businesses remain confident about their own performances over the next year, with many having a positive outlook for revenues. Globally, a net 59% of businesses expect an increase in revenue over the next 12 months. In the US, revenue expectations increased to net 76% from net 61% and in China they rose to net 62%.
Businesses are not taking advantage of the rising revenues the global economic recovery has provided to invest for longer term structural growth. Investment indications have held stubbornly flat despite rising revenues, research and development is steady at 22%; investment in technology increased by 1pp to 48%; investment in plant and machinery increased 4pp; investing in new buildings experienced a steady global increase of 2pp. Expectations for increased investment in all these areas have remained the same over the past two years
Francesca Lagerberg said: “There is a sense that 2018 may be as good as it gets for the global economy. Optimism has clearly been dented after two years of it steadily climbing. However, businesses and policymakers need to look at how they are preparing for the next phase of the global economic cycle. At the G20 finance ministers meeting in Argentina, helping businesses to invest for structural growth should be high on the agenda.
“Despite the small quarterly uptick in investment expectations, businesses are not increasing their levels of investment to a point which will help them ride out the economic shift economists predict we are about to see. Even with increased revenue expectations, they are not making plans to invest for structural growth. This could exacerbate the impact of any downturn if these predictions come to fruition.
“If we are entering the end of a global cycle, businesses need to rapidly increase their investments and put their expected increased revenues to work to fix the roof while the sun is shining.” The need to invest is highlighted by the fact that access to skilled workers is seen as the biggest constraint to growth by 40% of businesses globally.
Emerging markets are also increasingly wary of the impact rises in US interest rates might have as the proportion of businesses citing exchange rate fluctuations as a concern is increasing in many emerging economies. In emerging Asia Pacific, 35% cite it as a constraint, up 5pp from the previous quarter. This is driven by Malaysia (up 18pp to 48%), the Philippines (up 8pp 42%) and Thailand (up 2pp to 28%). Outside the Asia Pacific region, Brazilian businesses also have an eye on exchange rates with 33% citing it as a constraint (up 29%).
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Notes to editors: The Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), launched in 1992 initially in nine European countries, now provides insight into the views and expectations of more than 10,000 businesses per year across 36 economies. More information: www.grantthornton.global
Questionnaires are translated into local languages with each participating country having the option to ask a small number of country specific questions in addition to the core questionnaire. Fieldwork is undertaken on a quarterly basis, primarily by telephone. IBR is a survey of both listed and privately held businesses. The data for this release are drawn from interviews with more than 2,500 chief executive officers, managing directors, chairpersons or other senior executives from all industry sectors conducted in May and June 2018.
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